Evaluation of severe wind hazard from tropical cyclones - current and future climate simulations : Pacific-Australia Climate
Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program
Dataset Identification:
Resource Abstract:
In June 2012 Geoscience Australia was commissioned by Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
to undertake detailed wind hazard assessments for 14 Pacific Island countries and East Timor as part of the Pacific-Australia
Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) program. PACCSAP program follows on from work Geoscience Australia
did for the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP) looking at CMIP3 generation of climate models. The objective of
this study is to improve scientific knowledge by examining past climate trends and variability to provide regional and national
climate projections. This document presents results from current and future climate projections of severe wind hazard from
tropical cyclones for the 15 PACCSAP partner countries describing the data and methods used for the analysis.The severe wind
hazard was estimated for current (1981 to 2000) and future (2081 to 2100) climate scenarios. Tropical-cyclone like vortices
from climate simulations conducted by CSIRO using six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models (BCC-CSM1.1,
NorESM1-M, CSIRO-Mk3.6, IPSL-CM5A, MRI-CGM3 and GFDL-ESM2M) as well as the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship
were used as input to the Geoscience Australia's Tropical Cyclone Risk Model to generate return period wind speeds for the
15 PACCSAP partner countries. The Tropical Cyclone Risk Model is a statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclone behaviour,
enabling users to generate synthetic records of tropical cyclones representing many thousands of years of activity.The 500-year
return period wind speed is analysed and discussed into more details in this report, since it is used as a benchmark for the
design loads on residential buildings. Results indicate that there is not a consistent spatial trend for the changes in 500-year
cyclonic wind speed return period when CMIP5 models are compared individually. BCC-CSM1M and IPSL-CM5A presented an increase
in the annual TC frequency for East Timor, northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere. On the other hand, NorESM1M showed
a decrease in the annual TC frequency for the same areas. The other three models showed a mixed of increase and decrease in
their annual TC frequency. When CMIP5 models were analysed by partner county capitals for the 500-year cyclonic wind speed
return period, IPSL-CM5A and GFDL-ESM2M models presented an increase in the cyclonic wind speed intensity for almost all capitals
analysed with exception of Funafuti (GFDL-ESM2M), which presented a decrease of 0.7% and Honiara (IPSL-CM5A) with a decrease
of 1.6%.The tropical cyclone annual frequency ensemble mean indicates an increase in the tropical cyclone frequency within
all three regions considered in this study. When looking at individual capitals, a slight increase in the 500-year return
period cyclonic wind speed ensemble mean varying between 0.8% (Port Vila) to 9.1% (Majuro) is noticed. A decline around 2.4%
on average in the 500-year return period cyclonic wind speed ensemble mean is observed in Dili, Suva, Nukualofa and Ngerulmud.
The ensemble spatial relative change did not show any particular consistency for the 500-year cyclonic wind speed. Areas where
Marshall Islands and Niue are located presented an increase in the 500-year cyclonic wind speed while a decrease is observed
in areas around South of Vanuatu, East of Solomon Islands, South of Fiji and some areas in Tonga.The information from the
evaluation of severe wind hazard from tropical cyclones, together with other PACCSAP program outputs, will be used to build
partner country capacity to effectively adapt and plan for the future and overcome challenges from climate change.
Citation
Title Evaluation of severe wind hazard from tropical cyclones - current and future climate simulations : Pacific-Australia Climate
Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program
Metadata standard for this record:
ANZLIC Metadata Profile: An Australian/New Zealand Profile of AS/NZS ISO 19115:2005, Geographic information - Metadata
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1.1
Metadata record identifier:
fa94f524-6ad4-268b-e044-00144fdd4fa6
Metadata record format is ISO19139-2 XML (MI_Metadata)