Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO)

Dataset Identification:

Resource Abstract:
Abstract: A CPC forecaster (from a rotating schedule of 5 as of August 2013) creates the Seasonal Drought Outlook map and narratives. The map, produced using GIS, shows where current drought areas are expected to improve, be removed, or persist with intensity, as well as new areas where drought may develop, at the end of the forecast period. The current drought areas are obtained from the most recent weekly U.S. Drought Monitor where drought is considered D1 (moderate drought) or worse. There are two narratives: a brief, general summary and a detailed, regional technical discussion that describes the thought process, forecast tools used, and confidence for each region on the map. These outlook products apply to the following 3-month period from the date of issue. Originally produced once a month on the third Thursday of each month, the SDOs were changed to twice a month in June 2007 (initial SDO third Thursday of month, updated SDO first Thursday of next month). Since June 30, 2013, however, the SDO is now produced once a month on the third Thursday. The forecast applies to all 50 states of the United States plus Puerto Rico.
Citation
Title Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO)
publication  Date   2000-03-15
presentationForm  mapDigital
cited responsible party - originator
organisation Name  Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Weather Service, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce
cited responsible party - publisher
organisation Name  Climate Prediction Center
Contact information
Address
, , 
Topic Category:  climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere
Keywords:
Theme keywords (theme):
Atmosphere > Atmospheric Phenomena > Drought
Atmosphere > Precipitation > Precipitation Anomalies
Human Dimensions > Natural Hazards > Meteorological Hazards
Human Dimensions > Environmental Impacts > Water Management
thesaurus name >
Title NASA GCMD Science Keywords
Theme keywords (theme):
precipitation
drought
outlook
forecast
thesaurus name >
Title None
Location keywords:
Continent > North America > United States of America
Ocean > Atlantic Ocean > North Atlantic Ocean > Caribbean Sea > Puerto Rico
thesaurus name >
Title NASA GCMD Location Keywords
Stratum keywords:
Vertical Location > Land Surface
thesaurus name >
Title NASA GCMD Location Keywords
Theme keywords:
climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere
thesaurus name >
Title ISO 19115 Topic Category
Theme keywords:
Atmosphere > Atmospheric Phenomena > Drought
thesaurus name >
Title NASA GCMD Science Keywords
purpose:
To present a general picture of the overall drought tendency during the valid period. This is designated for a non-technical audience and is not designed to be a scientific contribution.
Browse image (thumbnail):
thumbnail file name:  ...
file type: PNG
thumbnail file description:  Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Seasonal Drought Outlook
Resource language:  eng; USA
Resource progress code:  completed
Resource Maintenance Information
maintenance or update frequency:  unknown
Constraints on resource usage:
Legal Constraints
Access Constraints  otherRestrictions
use constraint:  otherRestrictions
Other constraints
Access Constraints: None Use Constraints: Acknowledgment of the Data Originator when using the data item as a source. Distribution Liability: The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of this data. NWS is providing this data "as is," and NWS disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will NWS be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. As required by 17 U.S.C. 403, third parties producing copyrighted works consisting predominantly of the material appearing in NWS Web pages must provide notice with such work(s) identifying the NWS material incorporated and stating that such material is not subject to copyright protection. Refer the NOAA National Weather Service disclaimer; http://www.weather.gov/disclaimer.php
Spatial representation type code:  vector
Resource extent
Geographic Extent
Geographic Bounding Box
westBoundLongitude  -175
eastBoundLongitude  -65.5
northBoundLatitude  72
southBoundLatitude  17.5
Temporal Extent
ground condition 2000-03-15 2014-08-25T10:50:54.17-04:00
Credits:
David Miskus, Brad Pugh, Rich Tinker, Anthony Artusa, and Adam Allgood are the current USDO authors, while Randy Schechter provides useful forecast guidance to the authors. Douglas LeComte (CPC retired in 2010) was the founder of the USDO back in 1999.
point of contact - pointOfContact
organisation Name  Climate Prediction Center, NOAA
position Name David Miskus
Contact information
Telephone
Voice (301) 683-3453
Fax (301) 683-1557
Address
5830 University Research Court, College Park, MD, 20740
electronic Mail Address David.Miskus@noaa.gov
hoursOfService 08:30 - 4:30 PM Eastern
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Content information: feature catalog description

Included With Dataset  false
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Resource lineage description
Processing Step
description Initial SDO drought areas (shape files) are obtained from the most recent USDM via ftp site from the NDMC in Lincoln, NE, and lastly from the USDM author on Wednesday. The SDO author use the D1 (moderate drought) to D4 (exceptional drought) areas, and manually draws for persistence, improvement, development, or removal using ArcMap/GIS for the current D1-D4 areas. The D0 (abnormal dryness) areas are also overlaid on the US base map in case the SDO author believes that drought (D1 or drier) will develop by the end of the SDO outlook period. The latest ArcMap version (version 10) point snapping routine assures that the author will overlay the existing D1 areas. The large-scale drought trends are based upon subjectively derived probabilities guided by short and long-range statistical and dynamical forecasts. Data which contributes to the drought forecast includes the USDM, CPC long lead outlooks of precipitation and temperature, CPC medium range forecasts, La Nina and El Nino analogs, and various other climate and forecast products. The SDO cannot contradict CPC?s long-range precipitation outlook for that period. The SDO GIS shape files are saved for archival, especially for verification once the SDO period ends and the applicable USDM is available for comparison.
processing agent contact - processor
individual Name David Miskus
organisation Name  Climate Prediction Center
position Name Meteorologist
Contact information
Telephone
Voice (301) 683-3453
Fax (301) 683-1557
Address
5830 University Research Court, College Park, MD, 20740
electronic Mail Address David.Miskus@noaa.gov
hoursOfService 8:30 AM to 4:30 PM
contact Instructions
Call the office or email
Completeness Commission
evaluation Method Description  Quality control was performed on the most recent USDM shape files by NDMC as drought area input to the SDO. There is no quality control of the SDO shape files, but the SDO author cannot contradict CPC?s 3-month precipitation outlook (e.g. show drought development where the 3-month precipitation outlook favors wetness). Information about the NWS operational aspects of the SDO is contained in: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01012002curr.pdf
Completeness Omission
evaluation Method Description  Quality control was performed on the most recent USDM shape files by NDMC as drought area input to the SDO. There is no quality control of the SDO shape files, but the SDO author cannot contradict CPC?s 3-month precipitation outlook (e.g. show drought development where the 3-month precipitation outlook favors wetness). Information about the NWS operational aspects of the SDO is contained in: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01012002curr.pdf
ConceptualConsistency
measure Description  The SDO author is responsible for obtaining the most recent and final weekly US Drought Monitor D0 thru D4 shape files from the NDMC file server or USDM author and overlaying them on the SDO MXD. Once this is done, the author must determine whether to draw an area of Persistence, Improvement (at least one category improvement but drought remains), or Removal (no drought remains ? D0 or none ? at end of period) over the D1-D4 areas based upon future outlooks, forecasts, and analogs. The author can use the Snapping or Tracing options in ArcMap10 to precisely overlay their drought outlook areas to the borders of the D1 areas, and to other existing SDO areas. The author may also use the USDM?s D0 areas as a guide for new drought Development areas. They may snap to the D0 lines, or not, depending if the author believes that drought will develop beyond the current border of D0 (abnormal dryness). However, there may be some slight overlapping of SDO areas, or some slight gaps between SDO areas depending upon how accurate (e.g. how many points) the author draws their SDO areas. Since this product is currently meant for a non-technical audience, no logical consistency tests are made on the SDO areas. But once all the SDO areas are drawn and final, a script is run to clip the areas to the US border so no SDO areas are over water or in Mexico or Canada.
NonQuantitativeAttributeAccuracy
measure Description  The accuracy (skill) of the large-scale drought trends are based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by short, medium and long-term statistical and dynamical forecasts. The initial drought data is obtained from the latest U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) GIS shape files for drought areas D1 or worse from National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) in Lincoln, NE. A SDO verification score is made from the USDM at the end of the valid period. Originally, the category Some Improvement (which has been replaced since June 30, 2013) was not scored, and no verification is made for Hawaii, Alaska, or Puerto Rico as of August 2013. In short, the drought shape files from the USDM are compared with the SDO areas of improvement (removal is scored as improvement), persistence, and development to detect number of drought hits and misses (pixels) via the GIS spatial analyst. A hits versus misses score (%) is calculated, and then an outlook skill is determined from the score minus the persistence forecast baseline score. The SDO verifications (maps and statistics) have been archived by CPC since late 2009, and are available upon request. Future plans include SDO verifications to be on the CPC web site.

Resource distribution information

Distributor
distributor contact - distributor
organisation Name  NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
position Name Meteorologist
Contact information
Telephone
Voice (301) 683-3453
Fax (301) 683-1557
Address
5830 University Research Court, College Park, MD, 20740
electronic Mail Address David.Miskus@noaa.gov
hoursOfService 8:30 AM to 4:30 PM
contact Instructions
phone or email
Standard ordering process
fees None
Format
Format name Shape file
Format version 
file Decompression Technique  zip
Digital Transfer Options
Linkage for online resource
URL: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GIS/GIS_DATA/droughtlook/index.shtml
Linkage for online resource
URL: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.html
Linkage for online resource
URL: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GIS/GIS_DATA/droughtlook/index.shtml

Metadata data stamp:  2013-08-22
Resource Maintenance Information
maintenance or update frequency: 
notes: This metadata was automatically generated from the FGDC Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata standard version FGDC-STD-001-1998 using the January 2013 version of the FGDC RSE to ISO 19115-2 transform.
Metadata contact - pointOfContact
organisation Name  NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
position Name Scientific Data Specialist
Contact information
Telephone
Voice (301) 683-3412
Fax (301) 683-1557
Address
5830 University Research Court, College Park, MD, 20740
electronic Mail Address sudhir.shrestha@noaa.gov
Metadata scope code  dataset
Metadata language  eng; USA
Metadata character set encoding:   utf8
Metadata standard for this record:  ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data
standard version:  ISO 19115-2:2009(E)
Metadata record identifier:  gov.noaa.cpc:SDO

Metadata record format is ISO19139-2 XML (MI_Metadata)